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:: MAX BLACK ::

"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." --C.S. Lewis

"The Swiss pocket knife of conservative thought on the web..." - Eli Kardrakian

"Bookmark Max and dump your subscription to the newspaper; if you don't have a birdcage you really don't need it anyway..." - Shirley St. James

:: Thursday, June 10, 2004 ::

LA Times Poll in Direct Conflict with Iowa Electronic Market and Hedgehog

The June 9 IEM posts Bush .54 to Kerry's .465. Hedgehog, updated June 9 also shows Bush ahead 273 to Kerry's 231. The LA Times poll, however, shows Kerry 51% to Bush's 44% in a three-way matchup with Nader taking 4%. The clear indication of the Times article is, with Nader excepted, Kerry is WAY ahead in the poll.

Call me deficient in worldly wisdom or informed judgment, credulous even, but I think there is something very fishy about this poll. Also, in reading the Times report on the poll, I find their conjectures specious as well:

Lifting Kerry is a powerful tailwind of dissatisfaction with the nation's course and Bush's answers for challenges at home and abroad. Nearly three-fifths believe the nation is on the wrong track, the highest level a Times poll has recorded during Bush's presidency.


Also, 56% said America "needs to move in a new direction" because Bush's policies have not improved the country. Just 39% say America is better off because of his agenda.


Majorities disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq, despite recent encouraging news on both fronts.

"lifting Kerry is a Powerful tailwind of dissatisfaction"?! I'm not getting this from anyone I talk to and I hang in some pretty liberal circles.

Update: Rush has just questioned the Times poll and suggests it must have been strongly weighted with Democrats because these numbers simply don't add up.

Update # 2: Just looked at Tripias and the polls have completely flipped. Apparently from the most recent Zogby and LA Times polling results. Looking for answers I emailed Tripias. Here's the response I just got from Arthur Guray at tripias.com:

"Two new polls are showing a notable jump ahead by Kerry. First, Zogby International (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-print.html) surveyed 16 states, and gave Kerry Florida, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Nevada, and West Virginia, all of whom were previously leaning (albeit slightly) in Bush's favor. Then, the LA Time(http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-061004poll-g,1,5976588.graphic?coll=la-home-) have Kerry Ohio (20 EV) in exchange for Wisconsin (10 EV), putting Kerry another 10 ahead.

I'm suspicious of Zogby's methods, and was actually reluctant to include the poll, but I figured if it's good enough for the Wall Street Journal to publish, I won't argue..."

This is a dramatic shift; makes my antennae twitch. Look for an update tomarrow.

:: Max 11:02 AM [+] ::
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